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棉花、化纤与未来

【摘要】:
018年10月14日上午,中国纺织工业联合会副会长、中国化学纤维工业协会会长端小平以“棉花、化纤与未来”为主题,在2018中国棉纺织大会暨第五届第四次理事扩大会作专题报告,谈到了中国棉花与化纤产业的发展情况。端会长表示,棉花与化纤之间表现为替代、竞争和相互依存三种关系,在最近几十年纺织业的发展过程中,在不同的时间段,二者之间的关系表现出不同的特点。棉花与再生纤维素短纤维、聚酯短纤在核心资源、产品性

018年10月14日上午,中国纺织工业联合会副会长、中国化学纤维工业协会会长端小平以“棉花、化纤与未来”为主题,在2018中国棉纺织大会暨第五届第四次理事扩大会作专题报告,谈到了中国棉花与化纤产业的发展情况。

端会长表示,棉花与化纤之间表现为替代、竞争和相互依存三种关系,在最近几十年纺织业的发展过程中,在不同的时间段,二者之间的关系表现出不同的特点。棉花与再生纤维素短纤维、聚酯短纤在核心资源、产品性能和特点、供应能力等方面各具优劣势。近10年来中国棉纺产业使用非棉纤维量持续增加,2017年达1270万吨,比十年前增加51.7%,占中国棉纺行业纤维量的比重超过60%。

端会长对近几年棉花供需平衡情况进行了介绍,分析了储备棉情况和内外棉价差的走势,对近几年棉花政策的变迁和对棉纺行业的影响进行了梳理。

有关化纤,端会长介绍,近十年来,中国化纤产量持续保持增长态势,年均增长速度为7.38%,随着基数的不断扩大和全球分工的调整,中国化纤产量增长速度逐渐放缓。化纤的发展将呈现出:聚酯龙头炼化一体发展、产业集中度提高、智能制造和绿色发展的特点。

端会长表示,中国粮棉争地矛盾依然突出,未来在国际贸易局势紧张的情况下,棉花种植面积难以有效扩张,粘胶纤维有能力弥补棉花的供应不足,今后中国将大力发展与棉花密切相关的粘胶纤维。主要通过两种方式来实现:一是常规粘胶纤维生产的绿色化,常规粘胶短纤维近1年内已投放产能63万吨,未来1年拟投放产能68万吨,未来5年规划产能110~360万吨;二是莱赛尔(Lyocell)纤维实现国产化,莱赛尔短纤维现有产能4.5万吨,5年内拟投放产能13.5万吨。其他规划项目还有74万吨。

端会长谈到,从过去10年看化纤与棉花的竞争,虽然化纤占据了一定优势,但基本是良性的,竞争促进了各自产业的技术进步,未来化纤、棉花会和平共处,占据各自市场,但增量主要靠化纤。

端会长认为,由于中国竞争优势明显,化纤仍将继续发展,但发展速度将逐步减缓,并在2020年前后基本与全球增速同步,占全球的比重也会基本稳定。

有关棉花,他认为在中国,由于人口众多、可用耕地面积受限,未来应更重视粮食生产,受气候和土壤条件的影响,棉花种植将进一步向新疆集中。中国将会进一步放开棉花的进口,增加配额数量。国家轮入轮出制度将会在适当时机启动,具体操作将更加市场化。

关于中美贸易摩擦,端会长谈到,中美贸易战不只是“贸易战”,而是更深层次的改革战、战略战。美国是中国化纤出口第二大市场,近5年出口量年均增长7.56%,但占我国化纤总出口量的比重在下降,对美出口化纤产品主要是涤纶长丝、短纤、锦纶长丝、粘胶短纤,其中涤纶短纤约占46%。

中美贸易战涉及化纤全产业链,美国是我国涤纶短纤出口第一大市场,2017年占14.4%,并且近几年一直维持在10%-20%的占比。对美出口量占国内产量比例虽然不高,但对于较为脆弱的涤纶短纤行业来说,贸易摩擦的影响不容小看。加征关税后,中国涤纶短纤出口美国市场竞争力减弱,韩国可能成为最优,亦或促进美国本土短纤生产商的负荷提高。我国涤纶短纤行业脆弱,加征关税可能会导致行业销售疲软,影响效益。

对美出口粘胶短纤总量占国内产量的比重仅1%,并且在美2000亿最终清单中排除了出口量最大的55041000未梳粘胶短纤,因此贸易战对粘胶短纤出口的实际负面影响不大。中国加征5%进口关税将对粘胶纤维行业产生一定影响,将会增加企业的原料成本。为降低成本,企业可能会选择其他进口源来代替美国,比如进一步向巴西、印尼、南非等国家集中。

我国自美国进口棉花数量占比第一,2017年占比超过40%。加征25%关税后将大幅增加用棉成本,棉纺企业一方面将寻找其他进口源代替美棉,无污染的澳棉和巴西棉比较可能取代美棉,印度棉为次选,另一方面将调整产品结构,加大非棉纤维应用开发,这对非棉纤维来说是一次意外的机遇。

端会长对企业应对措施提出4点建议:(1)小步慢走,谨慎投资;(2)三个不犹豫:抓管理、搞研发、机器换人;(3)“一带一路”,积极进行资源整合和全球资源配置;(4)一定要有非棉配置。

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棉花、化纤与未来

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true true true true true true false 图册详情 true 70 true yyyy/MM/dd true e_box-000 true false all 1 true e_AtlasArticleBox-001 true e_articles-001 false true true 4 false true true true e_icon-000 e_icon-000 false false e_ListImgTitle-001 e_MinorLink-001 input 2.5 false 3 e_box-000 true 0 true false true true _blank true 1s_pAnGs003 24 e_image-000 1s_pAnGs001 true true true true e_box-000 false e_box-000 225x225 1 atlas_detail-15196276303965047 e_PreBtn-001 225 e_MatteBox-000 24 true true TitleAll 1s_sbxGs002 图册详情 false 1s_sbxGs001 e_NextBtn-001 1s_sharesGs001 1 24 e_btn-000 true true false e_box-000 e_box-000 false true {"type":"","content":{"id":"","text":""},"target":"_blank"} e_ContentMajorStyleBox-001 true false e_MinorLink-001 e_box-000 e_AtlasRelationImg-001 true e_AtlasBox-001 true e_PositionBox-001 false false false false false e_MoreBtn-001 true true false false false true 2 true false true false e_box-000 true e_image-001 e_box-000 false 4x3 true true e_box-000 5 0 true 0 true true 4x3 true e_ArticleHline-001 true site:atlas/atlas_detail-19 More e_ImgSummary-001 false true true e_box-000 e_PageNum-001 false true true false true 1s_kwdsGs001 0 e_box-000 e_IconSwitchBtn-002 e_IconSwitchBtn-002 60 true true e_link-001 true atlas_detail-04 true 1 true 6 true true true true false top true c_atlas_detail-04001 atlasId;currentPage;atlasCateId false atlasDetail_imgs 225 true hidden true _blank true true true true e_MatteBox-001 e_icon-000 true 4 true 2 1 false e_num-002fsaggasf true true e_image-000 e_box-000 e_loading-001 false false true true e_box-000 60 true false 24 100 true 70 true 1 false true 1 1s_styleName0005 1s_styleName0002 HH:mm:ss 1s_styleName0003
29 1
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