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到底发生了什么?今年纺织行业旺季变淡季....

【摘要】:
2018年还剩下不到40天了,冬天来了,对于做纺织服装的人来说都有「心忧衣贱愿天寒」的心态了。但这个冬天对于纺织服装人来说,注定有点不一样。往年纺织服装人盼望的寒冷天气即使到来,估计后面阶段也很难让纺织工厂有很大起色了。国庆过后,就接到很多同行工厂老板的电话微信,老板们莫名其妙就感觉怎么一下子工厂都不忙了,都在到处找单子做。按照往年的行情来说,这个时间段不忙有点不应该啊。正常情况下工厂现在应该都还

2018年还剩下不到40天了,冬天来了,对于做纺织服装的人来说都有「心忧衣贱愿天寒」的心态了。但这个冬天对于纺织服装人来说,注定有点不一样。往年纺织服装人盼望的寒冷天气即使到来,估计后面阶段也很难让纺织工厂有很大起色了。


国庆过后,就接到很多同行工厂老板的电话微信,老板们莫名其妙就感觉怎么一下子工厂都不忙了,都在到处找单子做。按照往年的行情来说,这个时间段不忙有点不应该啊。正常情况下工厂现在应该都还是在赶双十一的货。难不成今年双十一大家都不玩了吗?


轻工制造,纺织服装基本都是长三角和珠三角地区绝大部分中小微民营企业集中从事的行业,这两年因为一些城市加强消防管理,拆违,安监,环境整治等措施,很多小工厂老板被迫外迁或者转行歇业。


对于仍然坚守在这个行业的人来说,本以为淘汰了一些,能活下来的肯定会过得更好点。但目前的行业行情好像真的不容乐观。


背后原因分析


1、上半年已经囤好了!下半年面料贸易商不敢囤了!


上半年的狂欢过后剩下了下半年的「一地鸡毛」!部分服装企业和贸易商在「一布难求」的预期下,在3月份之后开始大范围的囤积面料,加上中美贸易对外贸关税上涨的预期,原本在9月后下的外贸企业的订单也提前到8月份之前了,从终端服装到贸易商都存在着一定量的面料库存,当市场原料库存饱和了之后,可想而知,9、10月的主力服装、面料贸易商也不敢囤货了,订单下达自然就减缓了。


2、秋冬季特别是羽绒服,羽绒、原料暴涨等成本涨了一倍,不敢囤了!


在服装生产过程中,服装价格与原料成本、生产损耗、人工成本等直接相关,随着这两年市场的好转,包括面料、辅料等服装产品的相关产品迎来了暴涨,据服装企业反映,目前羽绒的成本已经涨了一倍,羽绒服作为秋冬季的主打产品,价格的暴涨和近几年流行趋势的改变让服装企业对羽绒服秋冬季的销量担忧,因此要么提前备低价库存要么就是减少库存量,因此羽绒服这一块的订单损失其实有很大的影响。


另外不止是羽绒服,这几个月以来,化纤原料的暴涨让企业的成本也是在不断增加,一方面即使近期价格下跌,也较上半年的价格有很大的上涨空间,同时市场不稳定让本是接单定价季的企业很为难,在不能正常出货、价格涨的离谱的情况下,市场节奏被打乱了,贸易商是不敢囤了!


3、部分已经在买买买,但是市面上现货库存太多了!


你要说市场没启动是不现实的,的确还能看到旺季的一丝迹象,部分服装企业的订单还是在陆续下达,但是为什么不管你看织造工厂的订单还是原料工厂的产销都这么低迷呢,其实在往年来看,淡季囤货旺季销售是个常态,但是上半年的火爆让贸易商的货囤的太多了,下半年9、10月份正是抛货的时节,当高库存遇到大甩卖,可想而知啊!


4、天气还没凉,暖冬预期强


前面已经说到了羽绒服原料价格偏高导致服装企业不敢囤,另一个原因其实所有纺织企业也在盼着天气降温。天气一降温,秋冬季服装销售会进入新一轮的高潮,但反观今年,十一后也没有多少变凉的趋势,纺织人对暖冬的预期特别强烈。


5、服装加工作坊在消失,上游坯布面料在膨胀


目前服装加工市场也正经历腾笼换鸟,包括国内最大的服装生产基地之一的乔司镇和湖州织里童装名镇,都在经历散乱污的整治,未来会淘汰大部分的服装加工作坊,而这些小企业大部分为淘宝等电商平台供货,另外这些企业的供货方主要是一些中低端的常规喷水产品,因此服装加工作坊的整治造成短期的终端供需失衡。


而另一方面,上游坯布面料正在膨胀,随着坯布产能的大爆发随后冲击江浙市场势必导致回到了产能过剩时期的恶性竞争。同时在全国织机总量增加、中西部没有印染厂、化纤厂及后整理等相应配套设施,生产的坯布依旧会回流至江浙地区销售,因其成本较低对江浙坯布市场冲击更大,导致目前市场竞争恶劣,产能过剩的危险信号正在诱发。


6、中美贸易、电商市场的弱化等影响经济,终端个人消费能力在走弱


目前,美国对2000亿美元的中国进口商品征收的新关税已达到10%,并可能在1月1日升至25%,中国经济开始感受到压力。随着企业准备应对美国关税的影响,中国的制造业增长势头正在减弱。


另外往年火爆的双十一效应也在近年来弱化。前几年电商狂欢季会带动面料市场的成交量,但是从去年开始这种效应在逐渐减弱,究其原因,近年来资金大量流入房地产,加上物价走高特别是服装品牌的价格走高,导致终端个人可支配消费减少,消费能力正在走弱,而从今年的情况来看双十一的订单并没有大批量起来。


对纺织老板来说,如今在这个旺季遭遇到了寒潮,是大家都想不到的,从8月底到10月,每每盼望着订单的到来,却有一次次的落空,看着越堆越高的库存,这其实比炒股还揪心!


然而不光是订单的问题,同时还要每天、每周都要关注原料价格波动,每每收到涨价函通知都心惊肉跳,心里不断地盘算:原料没了的确是要买了,但这回是真要上涨了?还是试探性的?


总而言之,房子卖不出去的时候有人帮忙去库存,但纺织、服装再多的库存也别指望政策帮忙给你涨价去卖库存服装了。一位服装老板说:虽然目前手上的单子还能忙两个月,但对于在这个行业摸爬滚打了几十年的人来说,后面感觉真的嗅到了点不一样的味道……

 
 
 
 
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到底发生了什么?今年纺织行业旺季变淡季....

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/atlas/1/
""
"点击查看原图"
true true true true true true false 图册详情 true 70 true yyyy/MM/dd true e_box-000 true false all 1 true e_AtlasArticleBox-001 true e_articles-001 false true true 4 false true true true e_icon-000 e_icon-000 false false e_ListImgTitle-001 e_MinorLink-001 input 2.5 false 3 e_box-000 true 0 true false true true _blank true 1s_pAnGs003 24 e_image-000 1s_pAnGs001 true true true true e_box-000 false e_box-000 225x225 1 atlas_detail-15196276303965047 e_PreBtn-001 225 e_MatteBox-000 24 true true TitleAll 1s_sbxGs002 图册详情 false 1s_sbxGs001 e_NextBtn-001 1s_sharesGs001 1 24 e_btn-000 true true false e_box-000 e_box-000 false true {"type":"","content":{"id":"","text":""},"target":"_blank"} e_ContentMajorStyleBox-001 true false e_MinorLink-001 e_box-000 e_AtlasRelationImg-001 true e_AtlasBox-001 true e_PositionBox-001 false false false false false e_MoreBtn-001 true true false false false true 2 true false true false e_box-000 true e_image-001 e_box-000 false 4x3 true true e_box-000 5 0 true 0 true true 4x3 true e_ArticleHline-001 true site:atlas/atlas_detail-19 More e_ImgSummary-001 false true true e_box-000 e_PageNum-001 false true true false true 1s_kwdsGs001 0 e_box-000 e_IconSwitchBtn-002 e_IconSwitchBtn-002 60 true true e_link-001 true atlas_detail-04 true 1 true 6 true true true true false top true c_atlas_detail-04001 atlasId;currentPage;atlasCateId false atlasDetail_imgs 225 true hidden true _blank true true true true e_MatteBox-001 e_icon-000 true 4 true 2 1 false e_num-002fsaggasf true true e_image-000 e_box-000 e_loading-001 false false true true e_box-000 60 true false 24 100 true 70 true 1 false true 1 1s_styleName0005 1s_styleName0002 HH:mm:ss 1s_styleName0003
29 1
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